First load in the data. Currently have to download the NyTimes county level data by hand and put it in the local directory.

Summary of the NYtimes county level data for Montana looks like:

##       date                        county       state          
##  Min.   :2020-03-13   Gallatin       : 23   Length:307        
##  1st Qu.:2020-03-23   Lewis and Clark: 23   Class :character  
##  Median :2020-03-28   Silver Bow     : 23   Mode  :character  
##  Mean   :2020-03-27   Yellowstone    : 23                     
##  3rd Qu.:2020-04-01   Missoula       : 22                     
##  Max.   :2020-04-04   Broadwater     : 17                     
##                       (Other)        :176                     
##      fips               cases             deaths     
##  Length:307         Min.   :  1.000   Min.   :0.000  
##  Class :character   1st Qu.:  1.000   1st Qu.:0.000  
##  Mode  :character   Median :  3.000   Median :0.000  
##                     Mean   :  7.176   Mean   :0.101  
##                     3rd Qu.:  6.000   3rd Qu.:0.000  
##                     Max.   :109.000   Max.   :3.000  
## 

The current # of cases by county are:

Plot of the cases by county in Montana, but skip the zeros for now. If you scroll over the points it will provide details about the county and number of cases.

Plot it again but rescaled to a log axis and starting on the first day since 2 cases.

Now estimate the exponential growth rates by county and print the doubling times.

## # A tibble: 16 x 4
## # Groups:   county [16]
##    county          t.double    lo    hi
##    <chr>              <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
##  1 Broadwater           7.1   6.1   8.6
##  2 Cascade              6.5   5.6   7.7
##  3 Deer Lodge           6.2   3.1  NA  
##  4 Flathead             4     3.6   4.4
##  5 Gallatin             3     2.7   3.3
##  6 Jefferson           10.9   7.2  23.5
##  7 Lake                 5.2   3.7   9.6
##  8 Lewis and Clark      5.2   4.7   5.8
##  9 Lincoln              4.8   3.4   8  
## 10 Madison              5.1   4.5   5.9
## 11 Missoula             6.3   6     6.7
## 12 Park                 3.5   2.9   4.5
## 13 Ravalli             40.3  19.1  NA  
## 14 Silver Bow           5.1   4.5   5.8
## 15 Toole                3.9   2.8   7.2
## 16 Yellowstone          4.3   3.9   4.8

Show the plot of these estimated growth curves.